Suppose the data we have is (X1,Y1),,(Xn,Yn) and we fit it to the linear regression model: Y=Xβ+ε, εN(0,In). Assume that the i-th observation (Xi,Yi) lie exactly on the fitted line. Would β^ change if we delete (Xi,Yi) and perform linear regression on the rest n1 observations?

Initially, I thought β^ would not change due to the following reasoning.

Let X(i) denote the X matrix with i-th row deleted and let Y(i) denote the Y vector with i-th component Yi deleted. Suppose that β^ is the ordinary least square estimator of β based on the original data set. Then we have:

minβYXβ2=minβY(i)X(i)β2+YiXiβ2=Y(i)X(i)β^2+YiXiβ^2=Y(i)X(i)β^2,

where the last equality follows from the fact that (Xi,Yi) lie on the fitted line.

Then I made a wrong assertion: β^ not only minimizes |YXβ|2, but also minimizes |Y(i)X(i)β^|2. Indeed, the fact that x0 minimizes both f(x)+g(x) and g(x) does not imply x0 minimizes f(x).

In general, β^ would change. Consider the data set given by (0,0),(x1,y1),(x1,y1). Then the regression line is simply y=0. (There are multiple ways to check this. A direct one is the geometric approach.) Now, (0,0) lies on this line. However, its removal will change the regression line dramatically.